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03/14/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - There is a chance that the Predators could visit the Kings in the postseason's opening round depending on how the Western Conference shakes down. Los Angeles would prefer that didn't happen.
Currently seeded seventh in the West, Nashville will try for its seventh straight win over Los Angeles this afternoon at Staples Center.
The Predators have 79 points on the season, one more than the eighth-seeded Red Wings and two up on the ninth-seeded Flames. Nashville is also just three points behind the Avalanche and six back of the Kings, who are currently fifth in the standings.
Los Angeles would like to avoid a first-round meeting with Nashville, which has won its two meetings with the Kings this year to run its overall winning streak in the series to six games. The Preds have also won four straight at Staples Center, where they haven't lost since October 23, 2007.
Nashville, which will try to avoid its first overall loss to Los Angeles since March 13, 2008, wraps a four-game road trip tonight. The Predators improved to 2-1-0 on that trip with Friday's 1-0 win over Anaheim.
Shea Weber scored a first-period goal while Nashville skated with a five-on- three advantage off assists from Jason Arnott and Ryan Suter, who has a goal and five helpers over his last seven games. Pekka Rinne made it stand up with 31 saves for his fourth shutout of the season in what was his 100th NHL games.
"He's been a great goalie ever since he's been here and obviously the organization wants him for the long run," said Weber about Rinne, who owns 11 career shutouts. "They showed that by signing him [to a two-year extension on Feb. 24]. Obviously, he's rewarding them with some good play."
Rinne could again draw the start today seeing as he is a perfect 3-0-0 with a 2.62 goals-against average in three lifetime meetings with the Kings.
The Kings will try to solve the Predators today in the opener of a four-game homestand. Los Angeles has won six of its last eight at home and returns to Staples Center after Friday's 2-1 shootout victory in Dallas.
With starter Jonathan Quick away from the team after his wife gave birth to the couple's first child Friday morning, 21-year-old Jonathan Bernier was recalled from Manchester of the American Hockey League and posted 29 saves. Bernier was making just his fifth career start and first since Oct. 2007. He earned the second win of his career and first since winning his NHL debut on Sep. 29, 2007.
"He's a very talented young man," Kings head coach Terry Murray said on his team's Web site of Bernier, "and he has worked hard this year to get his game to a good level and having good success. The opportunity and the preparation came together here tonight, and I really liked what I saw."
Despite that, Quick is expected return to the net today aiming for his first career win versus the Predators. He is 0-2-1 with a 3.31 GAA lifetime against them.
Fredrik Modin scored his third goal in five games since being acquired by the Kings from Columbus before the trade deadline, while Jarret Stoll had the game-winner in the shootout's sixth round.
Los Angeles, which won 34 games last year, reached the 40-win plateau for the first time since 2005-06 and tied a club record by winning its 21st road game.
<< Taiwan's Tseng wins Women's Australian Open
Melbourne, Australia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Taiwan's Yani Tseng fired a flawless
seven-under 66 on Sunday to capture the Women's Australian Open.
The two-time LPGA Tour winner finished four rounds on the Commonwealth course
at nine-under 283
<< Record-setting Ruangkit wins European Seniors event
Nakhonpathom, Thailand (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Thailand's Boonchu Ruangkit fired a
seven-under 65 and set multiple records Sunday in winning the Chang Thailand
Senior Masters.
Ruangkit finished three rounds on the Royal Gems course at 21-und
<< Red Sox prospect Westmoreland to have brain surgery
Fort Myers, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Boston Red Sox prospect Ryan Westmoreland
is scheduled to have brain surgery Tuesday after being diagnosed with a
cavernous malformation in his brain, the team announced Saturday.
Westmoreland, 19
<< UC Santa Barbara drops Long Beach State in Big West final
Anaheim, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Orlando Johnson finished with 20 points as UC
Santa Barbara pulled out a 69-64 win over Long Beach State in the Big West
Conference Tournament final.
James Nunnally added 19 points for the top-seeded Gau
Flyers visit Rangers in Atlantic Division battle >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Flyers hope that they made a statement with their last-
second victory on Saturday against one of the best teams in the NHL. They've
already made their impression on the Rangers this season.
Philadelphia visits Madison
Maple Leafs try to push win streak to four games versus Islanders >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Toronto Maple Leafs will try to stretch their longest
winning streak of the season to four games this evening when they visit the
New York Islanders in a matchup of the two bottom teams in the Eastern
Conference.
Toro
Lightning play host to Penguins >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Lightning are coming off a big win over the Eastern
Conference's top team. They wouldn't mind posting another one versus arguably
the East's second-best team.
Tampa Bay will try to record just its third win in its last
Blues wrap road trip versus Wild >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The St. Louis Blues conclude a six-game road trip this
evening that has kept them in the playoff race. They do so against one of the
better home teams in the league, the Minnesota Wild, at Xcel Energy Center.
The Blues hav
Barry Bonds Watch: Giants Slugger Says He'll Be Back
With only 21 home runs standing between him and Hank Aaron, Barry Bonds is indeed planning on coming back for more in 2007. At least, that's what his agent told the Los Angeles Times.
"Barry's going to play in 2007," Jeff Borris of Beverly Hills Sports Council told the Times on Tuesday. "I've had many discussions with Barry and he's going to play. My intentions are to see to it he's in a big-league uniform next season. Those are my marching orders."
Contract negotiations could get started as early as next week. Let's see which team has the deeper pockets. Will MLB baseball betting lines despite allegations of steroid use? Bet On It at www.MySportsbook.com .
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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