07/03/2009 - Bethesda, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tiger Woods nourished his momentum with a handful of scrambling par saves, shooting a four-under 66 on Friday to take the second-round lead at the AT&T National.
Woods finished two trips around Congressional at 10-under 130 and will carry a one-shot advantage into the weekend as he tries to win his tournament for the first time.
Australia's Rod Pampling shot a six-under 64, one off his career record, and climbed into second place behind Woods at nine-under 131.
Defending champion Anthony Kim, after posting a course-record 62 in the first round, fell to third place with a middling 70, remaining at eight-under par.
Jim Furyk had another steady round, carding a 67 to sit fourth at seven-under 133.
Woods started his second round on the back nine and made a bogey at the 11th hole, coming up short of the green. But he collected three birdies during a four-hole stretch beginning at the 13th, including one at the 15th that was set up by an approach shot to tap-in range.
While those birdies set up a day of good scoring for Woods, it was a slew of par saves that had the tournament host happiest with himself.
He got up and down from in front of the green at the 17th, holing a three-foot putt. It was the first of three tough par saves in a span of five holes. He got lucky with a good lie at No. 2 and saved par after hitting his approach way right at No. 3.
During that stretch, Woods spun a bunker shot to within seven feet at No. 1 -- his 10th hole -- and made a birdie.
Not as accurate off the tee or crisp with his irons as he was Thursday, when he opened the tournament with a 64, Woods was still able to coax a good score out of his second round, keeping the momentum going with the par saves.
He knocked a sand-wedge within three feet at No. 8 for his final birdie of the day.
"Either I hit it pretty close to the hole, within 10 feet, or I was missing greens," said Woods. "So it was a little bit of two ends today. It was nice to actually get a score out of it."
Woods has often blamed an inconsistent putter for his sometimes fitful play this season. But he's seemed more confident on the greens at Congressional this week, even as he ranks somewhere near the middle of the pack in putting.
Although he took one more stroke with the putter than he did in the first round, Woods said he felt better with the club in his hand on Friday, when the greens were still soft from rain that fell overnight Wednesday.
"The pins were a little bit more difficult today, so if the greens would have been even firmer, it would have been a pretty good test," he said.
Pampling shared the lead with Woods at minus-nine after a birdie on the 15th, but parred the remainder of his holes to finish a shot behind. The two-time PGA Tour winner has a good history at this event, tying for third place last year and sharing 19th in 2007.
"It's positional golf, and you have to think about what you're doing out there," said Pampling. "Obviously we're hitting the ball well, which allows you to get it into where they can tuck a pin. It's just a thinker's golf course, and I enjoy playing those."
Kim made three bogeys during a six-hole stretch beginning at No. 9, hitting into a bunker each time. He only managed to make three birdies -- this after he collected eight birdies without dropping a shot in the first round.
"I hate the way I hit the ball today," said Kim, who hasn't won since last year's AT&T National. "It was okay for about six or seven holes, but the swing got loose and I couldn't find it out there."
Woods is trying to win his tournament for the first time. It was started in 2007, when Woods tied for sixth, and he missed it last year after having knee surgery.
He is 31-6 on the PGA Tour when holding the 36-hole lead.
"I need to hit the ball better than I did today, just clean up my round, and if I can get hitting the ball like I did yesterday and putt like I did today, we'll be looking all right," said Woods.
The cut line fell at two-over 142 with 76 players moving on to the weekend.
World No. 3 Paul Casey and 2007 AT&T champion K.J. Choi were among those who missed the cut.
<< Daytona qualifying rained out, Stewart awarded pole
Daytona Beach, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rain washed out Friday's qualifying
session for the Coke Zero 400 at Daytona International Speedway.
A thundershower moved over the 2.5-mile track shortly before the start of
qualifying. Track
<< D.C., Columbus clash for top spot in East
Columbus, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - D.C. United coach Tom Soehn was excited to have
last weekend off in MLS and thinks the Eastern Conference leaders are refreshed
for Saturday's trip to the Columbus Crew, even though they continued defense of
thei
<< Cano, A-Rod homer as Yankees top Toronto
Bronx, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Robinson Cano and Alex Rodriguez each homered
as the New York Yankees doubled up Toronto, 4-2, in the opener of a four-game
set.
Mark Teixeira added a hit and an RBI for the Yankees, who have won eight of
<< Turkoglu to join Blazers
Portland, OR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sharp-shooting forward Hedo Turkoglu is
leaving Orlando for the Great Northwest, reportedly coming to terms on a five-
year, $50 million contract with the Portland Trail Blazers.
The Oregonian newspap
Bowyer captures pole for Daytona Nationwide race >>
Daytona Beach, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After a lengthy rain delay, Clint Bowyer
won the pole for Friday's Subway Jalapeno 250 Nationwide Series race at
Daytona International Speedway.
Bowyer, the 2008 Nationwide champion, lapped the
Diaz remains tied for Jamie Farr lead >>
Sylvania, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Laura Diaz birdied four of the last six holes
Friday to remain tied for the lead after two rounds of the Jamie Farr Owens
Corning Classic.
Diaz carded a four-under 67 to complete two rounds at 11-under-pa
Lopez makes debut with Phillies >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Phillies called up
pitcher Rodrigo Lopez from Triple-A Lehigh Valley to start Friday's game
against the New York Mets.
Lopez is being used as a spot-starter due to Antonio Bas
Nash gets huge deal from Blue Jackets >>
Columbus, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Columbus Blue Jackets forward Rick Nash was
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The Columbus Dispatch reports Nash's deal means an annual salary cap hit of
$7.8 million
Ten years ago, at just about this time, I called Alan Boston in Vegas and left him a voicemail that went something like this (abridged version): "Hey Alan, Chad Millman from ESPN The Magazine calling. I want to do a book about wise guys, you in?"
A couple weeks later I got a message back (abridged version): "I don't know, maybe," Boston said. "Call me and we'll talk about it. But not later today. I got $1,000 on Andre Agassi to win the French Open at 40-1, and he's in the finals."
Here's what happened next (abridged version): Agassi won his tourney. Boston won his $40,000. I wrote sportsbook.
In the ten years since, how much has been wagered on the big-time tennis events? Put it this way: The Nevada Gaming Commission doesn't even track the number year by year because it's so small.
"Tennis makes up about one-tenth of one percent of our take," says Lucky's bookmaking boss Jimmy Vaccaro. "The last big golf major we probably had $100,000 worth of bets. In tennis, we might have written two big tickets."
Tennis' lack of popularity amongst the American bettoratti is no surprise, really. For starters, the biggest sports betting holidays -- the Super Bowl, the NCAA tourney -- are must see TV. People, at least the degenerates I know, plan vacations around watching those events in Vegas sports books.
But Wimbledon? Doesn't exactly reel in the whales. "Seriously, it's the nuts as an event," says Boston. "But who even knows when it's on?"
Here's another reason that helps explain why golf gets traction, something I call "The Bubbe Theory." My Bubbe is pushing 95 and has cataracts so bad that, to her, even the most crystalline Chicago day is mostly cloudy. But she still listens to the Cubs games, and she still calls me in a fit if she disagrees with something Rick Telander writes in the Chicago Sun Times. She's a sports fan. If she doesn't know you, you're just filling a niche. And niche players, even historically good ones like Roger and Raf, don't drive betting volume. Only the highest profile names attract square money, which inflates wagering totals like a shot of saline to the lips. Bubbe, and the public, loved Agassi, tennis' last cross-the-rubicon, mainstream draw. She also has a crush on Tiger. She's given me standing orders to put a sawbuck on the big cat whenever I walk through a sports book (or mistakenly tap into one via my Internet machine.) That explains why the Masters is getting $100K in action at some books while the four tennis majors might not get that combined this year.
This isn't a case of tennis being a difficult sport to bet. In fact, in Europe, it's probably the second most popular sport for gambling after soccer. Granted, as the WSJ football betting last week and The Mag's Shaun Assael examined in even greater depth last year, that might be because gamblers across the pond see it as an easy game to fix. But it could also be because, over there it holds the kind of sway the big two do over here.
Street corners in Spain are peppered with public courts and kids doing their best Raffy impressions. In some war torn parts of Eastern Europe poverty-stricken kids view tennis as an escape route, like football or basketball here. A couple years ago The Mag's Lindsay Berra wrote a great piece about Belgrade's Jelena Jankovic, Ana Ivanovic and Novak Djokovic. They learned the game as kids while bombs were raining down on their homeland. They practiced in drained swimming pools. Not exactly Nick Bolletierri conditions.
In the United States, casual fans think tennis is played four times a year. But on the tightly packed European continent, national interest in homegrown talent runs deep every weekend. Of the ATP's current top 20 players, only two, tennis betting and James Blake, are American. Fourteen are from Europe, representing six different countries.
No wonder fans from Lisbon to Bhudapest get jacked up for the net game, whether it's Wimbledon or a low-level tourney like the Estoril Open in Portugal (congrats to Spain's Albert Montanes for winning that one, btw). Chances are good that someone representing their flag will not only be playing, but have a shot at winning.
And that's all any bettor can ask for.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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