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03/13/2010 - Greensboro, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Derrick Favors registered 17 points and eight rebounds, as Georgia Tech overcame sloppy play down the stretch to get by NC State, 57-54, and advance to the ACC Tournament final.
Gani Lawal posted 12 points and 10 rebounds and D'Andre Bell scored nine for the seventh-seeded Yellow Jackets (22-11), who advanced to play Duke for the championship.
Tech, considered to be on the bubble, took down North Carolina in the opening round and may have done enough with Friday's quarterfinal win over Maryland to get to the NCAA Tournament should they fall short against the Blue Devils on Sunday, when the Jackets aim for a fourth ACC Tournament title.
Tracy Smith recorded 15 points, while Javier Gonzalez and Scott Wood each scored nine for the 11th-seeded Wolfpack (19-15), who beat sixth-seeded Clemson and third-seeded Florida State to reach the semis.
NC State shot a lackluster 30 percent in the first half, including a 1-for-12 showing from three-point range, to end with just 19 points and a 10-point deficit after 20 minutes.
The Wolfpack regrouped early in the second half and embarked on a go-ahead 12-0 run, capped by a pair of three-pointers from Gonzalez for a 36-33 game nearly six minutes in.
The lead stuck until Iman Shumpert put in back-to-back buckets for Tech, tying the game at 40 with just under nine minutes left.
The two sides played to within a possession down the stretch run until the Yellow Jackets produced a crucial 8-0 run to gain control with 1:27 to play. Favors scored five of those points and his layup to cap things off made it 52-46.
NC State had a chance to take the lead, though, thanks to a lack of closing skills on Georgia Tech's part.
C.J. Williams' tip-in preceded Glen Rice Jr. making just 1-of-2 at the line, and after the Jackets inexplicably sent State to the line twice in the final minute, Gonzalez drained a three after Shumpert missed both his free throws for a sudden 55-54 game with 12.4 seconds showing.
Bell made two clutch free throws on the other end, but the Wolfpack still had a chance for a tying three on the final possession. Gonzalez got a decent look from beyond the right elbow, but his shot caught the back of the rim just before time expired.
<< Minnesota crushes Purdue to reach Big Ten final
Indianapolis, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ralph Sampson III scored a team-high 13
points and Minnesota continued its quest to an unlikely NCAA Tournament bid
with a dominating 69-42 drubbing of No. 6 Purdue in the semifinals of the Big
Ten Tou
<< Zardana edges Rachel Alexandra in New Orleans Ladies
New Orleans, LA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra, making
her first start in six months, was defeated by Zardana in Saturday's $200,000
New Orleans Ladies at the Fair Grounds.
The 1 1/16-mile race had a field of five
<< Allen's OT goal leads Florida over San Jose
San Jose, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Bryan Allen scored at the 2:46 mark of
overtime to give the Florida Panthers a 3-2 win over the San Jose Sharks at HP
Pavilion.
In the extra season, a left circle faceoff was won by Shawn Matthias a
<< Quinn exit may be near as Delhomme lands with Browns
Cleveland, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Cleveland Browns have reportedly signed
quarterback Jake Delhomme, lending credibility to the rumors that Brady Quinn
will soon be dealt.
The Cleveland Plain Dealer reported Saturday that Delhomme si
Lookin At Lucky captures Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn >>
Hot Springs, AR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Champion colt Lookin At Lucky made a
successful debut Saturday as a three-year-old in the $300,000 Rebel Stakes at
Oaklawn Park. The 2009 champion two-year-old was the even-money favorite in
the sev
Kuznetsova falls at Indian Wells >>
Indian Wells, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Carla Suarez Navarro of Spain upended No.
1 seeded Russian Svetlana Kuznetsova, 6-4, 4-6, 6-1, in second-round action at
the $4.5 million BNP Paribas Open tennis event.
Navarro's victory was the only s
NBA suspends Bulls' Hinrich one game, fines Suns coach Gentry >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The NBA suspended Chicago Bulls guard Kirk
Hinrich for one game and fined Phoenix Suns head coach Alvin Gentry $25,000
for separate incidents from Friday.
Hinrich made contact with an official during
No. 2 Stanford handles Cal, on to Pac-10 final >>
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nnemkadi Ogwumike led all scorers with 18
points along with 10 rebounds as the No. 2 Stanford Cardinal handled the
California Golden Bears, 64-44 in the semifinals of the Pac-10 Conference
Tournam
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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